Statistics of Potential Mate Availability


Introduction

It seems that I rarely meet single young women. The obvious test of this hypothesis is to determine the number of women single at the time of meeting compared to the total number met. The most current tally is shown below.

Experimental Method

Determination of status is relatively simple in most cases. Extended interaction and observation (multiple meetings over time) in virtually any setting will provide sufficient evidence for an accuracte determination. In cases where extended interaction/observation will not be possible (e.g. woman is leaving the country), direct questioning is used. Entries which cannot be deduced, observed, and do not respond to questioning are listed as "unknown".

For those who are directly questioned, they are briefly not counted while waiting for an answer. They are held in limbo by first name only in an encrypted file. When an answer is received or sufficient time elapses (generally 1-2 weeks), they are reclassified. Those who do not answer are classified "unknown". There is no record here of the number of pending entries.

Once classified, there is no distinguishing information kept in any form; only total numbers are kept in an encrypted file and the percentages updated here. Any correspondance for an entry is destroyed.

Experimental Data

The time period spanned by the statistics is vague, and the total count probably does not include all possible entries. Those met who are/were of no interest are excluded from the total count. "Not single" is defined as having any sort of "relationship" - boyfriend, girlfriend, spouse, fiance, etc. are undifferentiated. Unknowns should be added to both columns to compute the maximum bounds.

    % single        % not    % unknown    total met 
        31.0         48.3         20.7           29

Theoretical Prediction

According to the March 2000 U.S. Census data, 22% of women 20-24 years of age are married, and 50% of age 25-29. This gives lower bounds for the "not Single" category, indicating that the experimental results are likely not anomalous. There remains the possibility that the results are anomalously weighted towards the "Single" category, but little can be said since the prevalence of unmarried, but not single, women is not reported in the Census data.